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Step by country #6 - What will electricity cost in 2030?

The Chancellor of the Ministry of Climate Change, Keit Kasemets, and the Deputy Chancellor for Mineral Resources, Jaanus Uigaga, explained to the members of the Employers' Confederation that it is a third less than today.
In order to foster economic growth and increase competitiveness, it is essential that the state ensures the availability of competitively priced energy, which is a prerequisite for bringing production to higher value-added levels.
This is the common expectation of Estonian industry and manufacturing companies to create a competitive business environment for the country. In order to keep energy-intensive industry in Estonia and to attract new industry to our region, we as a country must be able to guarantee security of energy supply and a final energy price in line with the Nordic region.
Employers met with Keit Kasemetsa, Chancellor of the Ministry of Climate Change, and Jaanus Uiga, Deputy Chancellor for Mineral Resources, on 29 April to seek clarification on the new onshore and offshore wind farm support measures approved by the Cabinet. The main question today is - what will electricity cost in Estonia in 2030?
Ministry of Climate Change electricity price forecast
Tracking the historical price fluctuations in Estonia and the region, we know that between 2013 and 2020 the average annual electricity price did not rise above the 48 EUR/MWh threshold. For the last 3 years, the average annual price did not fall below the 86 EUR/MWh threshold. In 2022, we have seen an electricity price extreme within 10 years, with an average annual electricity price at 193 EUR/MWh. We can therefore conclude that the average annual price over the past 10 years is around 61 EUR/MWh.
Prior to the given price curves, it is possible to make assumptions and choices about future price expectations. The price curve reflects the biggest changes in the electricity system and their impact on electricity prices.
We have chosen as our baseline scenario RD* which we have used to develop our future forecast: an annual average exchange price 2030 of 66 EUR/MWh.
We assume that in 2035, by which time much of Elering's current investment plan will be completed and additional storage with offshore wind farms will be added, the average annual exchange price will be 49 EUR/MWh.